Why Waterford’s fifth Dáil seat is “imminent”

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THE addition of a fifth Dáil seat in the Waterford constituency is unlikely to weaken the representative voice of Dungarvan and West Waterford voters according to one of the country’s leading electoral analysts.

Adrian Kavanagh, lecturer and researcher at Maynooth University’s Department of Geography, said that the findings of the next constituency review, following the 2027 Census, makes a fifth Waterford seat “highly likely”. 

“If the population increases between 2022 and 2027 at the same level as it did between 2016 and 2022, I think a five-seat Waterford constituency looks highly likely, especially as there will be an increased number of TDs in the next Dáil – (given that there) must be one TD for every 30,000 people in the State,” he said.

In the Electoral Commission’s 2023 Constituency Review Report which came into effect at last November’s general election, Waterford was one of only seven constituencies in the State which remain unchanged from the previous review.

While Waterford City’s population increase will outstrip the rest of the county, Mr Kavanagh believes the ‘West Waterford seat’, synonymous with the Deasys (FG) for decades and currently held by Conor McGuinness (SF), should remain secure.

“Population is a factor, no doubt,” he stated. “But higher turnout levels in rural areas can often offset that factor – if (post 2027), Waterford is a five-seater, then I'd imagine there's at least one seat for a west Waterford candidate in any case.”

Electoral Commission’s 2023 review

IN a submission to the Electoral Commission’s 2023 Constituency Review, City & County Councillor Mary Roche (SD), who ran in last November’s general election, described Waterford as “too large to remain a four seater, yet too small to be a five seater”.  

She wrote: “From a Waterford perspective, there is an opportunity to follow the Regional Spatial and Economic Strategy (RSES) Metropolitan Area Strategic Plan (MASP) and (the) 2017 Waterford Boundary commission recommendation that envisages the suburban area of the city, currently divided between the Carlow-Kilkenny and Waterford constituencies being brought together.

“In the context of the North Quays development, the provision of the north N25 ring road around Waterford and for the better governance of a coherent and cohesive circular 15 minute city, the unsympathetic river boundary that dissects the city should be ended. This boundary review falls at a good time to make this change, as I can see no incumbent TD particularly impacted by this change, and so it would not be overly disruptive.”

‘Fully aligned constituency’  

In its report, published in August 2023, the Electoral Commission recommended “no changes to the Waterford constituency and that it should remain fully aligned with the boundary of Co Waterford.”

According to the 2022 Census, the population of Waterford city and county rose by 10 per cent since Census 2016, increasing by 11,187 people to a total of 127,363. This outstripped the average national increase of eight per cent during the same timeframe.

Despite this, the Commission concluded that Waterford “does not have sufficient population to support an additional seat without significant transfers and one or more breaches of county boundaries. A number of submissions called for areas of Co Kilkenny to be transferred into the Waterford constituency to justify the allocation of an additional seat.

“The Commission decided to maintain the Waterford constituency as it is, mindful of the continuity of arrangements and the prevention of county boundary breaches”.

Given the recent failure to extend the Waterford city boundary to account for all of Ferrybank and adjacent townlands, such a boundary extension now appears as unlikely as adding Carrickbeg or even Youghal under Waterford’s administrative control.

Adrian Kavanagh doesn’t believe that such extensions, particularly in the case of the latter mentioned duo, would make sense.    

“Personally, unless it's absolutely necessary, I'm against the adding of small parts of other counties to make up the numbers in another constituency as research shows that people generally prefer to be able to vote for candidates from their own county,” he stated.

Other potential post-2027 changes

Mr Kavanagh’s contention that a fifth Waterford seat will not mean a migration of all future Dáil representation east of Clonea/Rathgormack also came with a potentially different constituency arrangement when looking a little further ahead.

“If Waterford's population is roughly (circa) 240,000 by then, based on the constitutional stipulation that there must be at least one TD for every 30,000 people across the State, Waterford could well be split into two three-seat constituencies (maybe Waterford City, Waterford County) by that stage.”

When put to him that, perhaps we have too many TDs as is and that a better resourced local authority might serve Waterfordians better, Mr Kavanagh offered the following observations.

“Especially in the present global political climate, a fully functioning democracy is vitally essential (so) I don't think there's an either/or here,” he replied.

“As noted already, I am not in favour of the reduction of TD numbers (this would require a referendum to be passed in any case) as to do so would leave certain areas - maybe somewhere like west Waterford - without a local TD. But I also see a logic in better resourcing the councillors - Council representation levels were dramatically cut in the early 2010s and a reduced number of councillors have been trying to serve a rapidly growing population over the past 15 years, while being renumerated on the basis of this being a part-time job (which it really isn't), and some good people have been lost to local politics as a result.

“I think over the coming years there has to be serious attention given to determining whether the number of councillors needs to be increased and whether councillor renumeration levels needs to be also looked at.”

Fifth Waterford seat is “imminent”

Constitutional law expert Dr Jennifer Kavanagh, who lectures in Law at SETU, described a fifth Waterford Dáil seat as “imminent”, adding that “many were surprised (that Waterford) didn’t move from four seats to five in the last constituency review”.  

“The Electoral Commission wants to keep to county boundaries in as much as possible, which was the brief given to them in the last review. If you look at the Electoral Commission’s report, they have gone for the smallest increase that was possible when they could have added way more but they themselves have stated that we will definitely have more TDs at the next review, probably following the next Census.”

Dr Kavanagh concluded: “We’ll probably see a constitutional amendment to change the representation ratio before we see central government devolve more power to local authorities.”

This report was originally published in the Dungarvan Observer on May 9th, 2025

For further insights from Adrian Kavanagh, visit: https://adriankavanaghelections.org/